6 May 2013CNET:
“We see two refreshes coming. One in the second half of this year, then one in Q1 [first quarter] of 2014,” analyst Richard Shim told CNET late Sunday night.
“The Q1  device will have a Retina display plus an updated processor,” Shim added.
Due to constraints of technology, I would say that a Retina iPad mini coming early in 2014 is a good bet to take. In contrast, I am taken aback by NPD’s prediction of a revision in the third-quarter of this year.
What meaningful additions can Apple make to an iPad mini in 2013 that makes a product refresh worthwhile? I’d argue there are none1, making a refresh very unlikely this year. Margins on the Mini are still very compressed, which I think makes Apple very resistant to doing a refresh soon.
1 I suppose it could be an ‘invisible’ revision, something which helps Apple push costs down, for example, but is not seen (or advertised) as new to customers.